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Our lives are immersed in a sea of chance. Everyone’s existence is a meeting point of a multitude of accidents. The origin of the word ‘chance’ is usually traced back to the vulgar Latin word ‘cadentia’, meaning a befalling by fortuitous circumstances, with no knowable or determinable causes. The Roman philosopher Cicero clearly expressed the idea of ‘chance’ in his work De Divinatione: For we do not apply the words ‘chance’, ‘luck’, ‘accident’ or ‘casualty’ except toanevent which hassooccurredorhappened that it either might not have occurred at all, or might have occurred in any other way. 2.VI.15. For if a thing that is going to happen, may happen in one way or another, indi?erently, chance is predominant; but things that happen by chance cannot be certain. 2.IX.24. Ina certain sensechance isthespiceoflife. Iftherewerenophenomena with unforeseeable outcomes, phenomena with an element of chance, all temporal cause–e?ect sequences would be completely deterministic.
It doesn't seem like I'm reading the same book as the other reviewers. This thing is almost incomprehensible. Surely beyond the understanding of even many with typical graduate degrees unless you happen to be Einstein or Alan Turing.If I hadn't previously read some other probability books (Lady Luck by Weaver and Taking Chances by Haigh), I would have given up after the first few chapters. Maybe it's because the author is Portuguese and something gets lost in the translation. Mathematical permutations and combinations, that are explained in the other books, are very confusing here. Trying to describe the seemingly important Bayes theorem, the author comes up with formulas that don't logically follow his word descriptions. Maybe by trying to simplify the mathematics, he has instead made it more confusing.My recommendation: try some other more readable probability books than this. If I hadn't already marked in this, it would have been going back.
